Q: I have heard there are significant changes to the H-1B lottery this year. How do these changes impact sponsoring employers?
A: By way of background, the H-1B visa is available for specialty occupations, i.e. positions requiring a bachelor’s degree or higher. There is an annual cap, which limits the number of first-time H-1Bs to 85,000 in a given fiscal year (with 20,000 of those reserved for individuals holding a U.S. master’s degree or higher). Each March, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) conducts a registration lottery process through which it selects eligible foreign workers and their U.S. employers to submit an H-1B petition for an Oct. 1 start date.
In March 2025, USCIS received 336,153 total eligible registrations and selected 118,660 beneficiaries — a 35.3% selection rate. In the two years prior, the selection rates were lower: approximately 29% and 24.8%, respectively. These lotteries were conducted purely at random, as has been the historical practice by USCIS.
However, a major shift in this practice was recently announced in a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) federal rule, which is set to take effect on Feb. 27, 2026. Specifically, DHS introduced a new weighted selection process for H-1B registrations for the upcoming lottery, which will run from noon Eastern on March 4, 2026, through noon Eastern on March 19, 2026.
Under the new weighted selection process, registrations will be entered into the random selection pool a specific number of times corresponding to the assigned prevailing wage level for the proffered position, ranging from one entry for Level I to four entries for Level IV. The prevailing wage level is based upon the requirements for the role, with Level I corresponding to entry-level positions and Level IV to much more experienced roles. Prevailing wages themselves are based on the available wage data for a given occupational classification in a specific work location.
In its new rule, DHS estimates the upcoming selection probability to be 15.29% for Level I, 30.58% for Level II, 45.87% for Level III, and 61.16% for Level IV. These figures are based on last year’s selection rate and petition amounts for each wage level, along with an estimated decrease in this year’s Level I filings. Considering last year’s selection rate of 35.3%, this translates into a much better success rate for employers offering higher-level H-1B roles.
One other change impacting the H-1B process is the introduction of a $100,000 fee for certain petitions. This fee generally applies only to cases for individuals outside the U.S., or those who are ineligible to change status in the country. Furthermore, the fee does not apply to the H-1B registration itself.
Considering the increase in selection chances for most registrations, along with the non-applicability of the $100,000 fee, employers should feel unencumbered moving forward with the H-1B lottery this March.